Loading ...Wow, I guess I forgot that this site has been up that long. I followed this group over from that “other” forum.
thanks to all as I have learned so much.
BlindRN, goldie sums it up nicely.
All we would be celebrating is being right, and living long enough to see it. Many friends have departed since Vronsky brought us together in the ’90s. Back then, the celebration would have been that we were right, the system has collapsed, we are rich and are well positioned to enjoy the rebuilding of the economy based on sound money. But ‘they’ have kicked the can down the road so far, with ever more cunning delaying tactics, so that now we are proven right all we can see is a mess so big that, as goldie says, survival is a more important aspect that rebuilding. So yes.
We were right. Dammit!!
a friend (college roommate from the ’60s) asked me to briefly explain the silver situation.
silver and gold are money.
gold is money and pretty.
silver is money and industrially useful (best known conductor of electricity and heat, best reflector of light, photosensitive compounds useful in traditional photography, interesting antimicrobial and tonal qualities, etc…).
silver gets used up to far greater extent than does gold.
silver is found in far greater abundance in the pacific “rim of fire” than elsewhere. the relative abundance of silver (in western civ) to gold grew as contact with pacific cultures grew (rennaissance trade with the orient, conquest/rape of mexico – incas, comstock lode nevada etc.) …8:1 ancient rome, 15:1 u. s. coinage act of 1793.
silver becomes less scarce, and is de-monetized, u.s (and others) go on gold standard. (see wm jennings bryan, cross of gold speech).
western miners politically persuade u. s. govt to purchase silver (as “strategic reserve,” really as price support) and u. s. gov builds up HUGE stockpiles.
….
step back a few decades. the industrial revolution begins, soon after, edison invents electricity, industrial silver usage begins, and slowly grows.
somewhere about the sixties, u. s. politicians start to sell off the “strategic reserve.” excess supply depresses what price would otherwise do, and thus discourages mining development.
global usage exceeds global production (structural deficit), the imbalance being made up by “strategic” dishoarding.
this led to the silver price being set by the futures market – a casino which operated primarily as a cash cow for the large banking institutions (GS, JPM, etc) who in the process, built up HUGE short positions which were mostly settled in paper (rolled over) rather than settled by delivery of the actual metal. nice for them …while it lasted.
unfortunately for them the “strategic” reserve, though huge, was finite, and is nearing total depletion.
the large financial institutions are (rumored to be) short billions of ounces. nobody knows exactly but it’s likely several years worth of annual global production. they scraped together enough metal to satisfy the contracts due in december. a medium large pile comes due the end of march. expect much screaming and moaning – with fireworks.
…
demand is growing (solar, electronics, medical, defense, new tech batteries…).
industrial users are getting worried about securing sufficient material to keep their multi-million (billion?) dollar production lines running. each day, they are less likely to accept rollover or cash settlement of their contracts.
…
supply is inelastic. from discovery to production is ten years in a mining friendly jurisdiction. how long to get a permit for a smelter or refinery? most silver is produced as a byproduct of other mining operations. (a copper miner whose silver byproduct is five percent of his revenue is unlikely to increase production if silver price merely doubles or triples.)
…….a short squeeze? an exchange default? a supply shortage? an economic kerfuffle on steroids? all of the above?
how high will the market HAVE TO go to balance the imbalance? short term? long term? anybody’s guess. $hundreds? $thousands?
i think it’s gonna be fun to watch. are your seatbelts buckled?
love,
——
p.s. a well balanced metals portfolio includes brass and lead.
Maya
I still remember the Kona coffee you sent to us at the north Georgia meeting.
thanks again.
aurum
😎
BlindRn
I have to second that on the rally monkey. I don’t think it’s the monkey though just attention it gets by the greeneyed shorts.
So many are no longer here now and I don’t think most of us could see just how bad things could get and turned more into survival, that winning if you’d call it that has come with a cost or even if some become a millionaire at this point cant even make plans with it anymore other than to pass down. I do hope some are still able to be a productive part of a hopefully better economy when the dust settles cuz it isn’t over yet.
Anyone in the path of the winter storm?
Bob are you still in Wisconsin.
Wisconsin -13 and -23 tonight
Storm covering all the way down to Georgia from the east coast.
To Texas from the mid west.
Did Dr V reincarnate himself over at X
https://x.com/GoldEagleCom He has quite the following
Rally Monkey
Doing a search of this site for rally monkey, I am surprised how many folks wanted me to post it. But quite frankly I am afraid to do it. I have rally monkey caged where he/she will stay.
I remember the group get together in the north Georgia mountains. I would talk about it but so many have passed.
Should another similar get-together be planned anywhere near the east coast, count me in.
So many of the old posters are gone, it is somewhat depressing to even log on.
But I am ready for a new group of tentsters.
aurum
Blindrn
Welcome
No …no celebration talk…..We survivors realised that any talk of celebration, or just as bad letting a noisy marsupial out, was always the death of the move….so we stoically trudge on……like good pilgrims.
Goldbug celebration
Hi all, several years ago there was always such talk of a goldbug ( to the moon ) celebration. Is that still a thought?
BlindRN
aufever
Yes and I haven’t visited the US for a long while…..but if things keep going well, then a trip will be on the cards.
Maddog
You are in the U.K., right?
Go you ever go (come) to the states?
deer, 7:22. I’ve pondered that for a while.
At first, it seemed logical that it would be for property. Farmland, maybe, or conventional real estate, either residential or commercial. But, you know, real assets like G&S. But now, after the government, and the climate lunatics (but I repeat myself) have got stuck into everything, and chatting to farmer friends who cannot get labour and whose kids, having seen how tough it is to raise cattle and wheat with all the regulations and form filling and ministry oversight … nah, too old and grumpy for all that. Likewise with rentals. Older buildings need maintenance, which is just soooo expensive nowadays, and upgrades for fire regulations, and insulation, and, and, and …. a mate with an apartment in Sydney is selling it because there’s been no return for the last few years because of the costs. New houses start falling apart within a few years so they aren’t any better, and then you have to deal with tenants too. Bonds? Hohoho. Stocks? Maybe, maybe not. They need managing too. I guess I’m getting lazy. So, why sell at all? Just leave it to the kids as it is.
Gruesome Newscum will shut down Calif
Charging 42 thousand to drive A truck through the border if the truck doesn’t meet the stringent mandates. Other states up in arms. Food rotting because the trucks refuse to go there.
Maddog
I remember back in December there was news that a few of the refineries had shut down for maintenance. One in Salt Lake City here and a couple in Europe. The timing was noted as odd for just maintenance. The same video thought March deliveries on the Crimex would be off the charts and potentially problematic.
I’m wondering if aside from a few 1-2 day death drops we don’t keep going until then. Next week with the Fed meeting will be interesting.
The move is not finished.
Plus the forgotten metal.
Kyosaki, Bateman
If that is true about Kyosaki, that’s pretty sad to me. Something like I would do.😞
When Ipso first posted the Bateman announcement on X, he said he had picked up the silver 6 months earlier. If so, I’m guessing he’s in at about $26-$30 oz. Not too shabby if you own 1.25 million ounces.
John AG exit stragefy
Using ratios. It worked for me back around 2011 switching one for the other.
Buygold
re yr 19.47
As I said tks v much…..yet another poss confirmation…..the action sure seems to confirm…..as so far demand has not stopped at all.
ferrett @ 0:56
Bateman sure hit a home run! Wouldn’t take too many billionaires to run the price way up. These deep pockets guys could afford to buy their own operating gold mines.
re: Kyosacki … I think there’s a lesson there
Why the world needs silver. John AG
A whole lot of it.
Anyways
Moral of present story is my eyes were opened to China quietly accumulating metals partially in 2007 and definitely 2008 till now having enough along with refiners. But thanks to Trump the nations around the world except maybe Africa can say and we have the oil. A perfect storm for miners.
I wonder what Dave Hunter sees going on 2030s with 500 oil? The demos getting back in? Seems so because he did mention so far Trump is helping keep it affordable. Except for Gov Newscum in California taxing and driving the oil companies out.
China
I bet China wanted to hook up with the mid east for oil but Trump’s watching out for that right now with Itan hopefully not trading one regime draining the life out of them for another and hopefully Mexico will hold their own and have mines to think about too as well as oil effects all costs but they’re still all over Africa’s resources.
Buygold
re yr 19.47
Tks v much for that….as I said …have never seen a mkt run like this….also just look at how happy Bessant is…..