OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

Dave Hunter

Posted by goldielocks @ 22:53 on December 3, 2025  

Hold on be ready Broncho ride ahead.

One person mentioned Sinclair.He apparently said if dollar goes below 80 trouble.

However according to Hunter watch the dollar. Once it gets down to low 80s watch out that won’t be the issue. . Once it moves toward 120s apparently back up the truck with PMs. Through the crazy years ahead keep that in mind. That PMs you will be okay holding PMs because after a bust it will fly but equities besides a select few not so much. Won’t be the same this time.

 

 

buygold…….

Posted by Maddog @ 22:12 on December 3, 2025  

How much more can you say, before this becomes sedition….?????

https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1996248087874896145

Naked shorting

Posted by Maddog @ 21:58 on December 3, 2025  

Is when a seller sells but does not have the shares to short and never borrows them either and is not called for them….there is a load of anecdotal evidence to support that happening with PM shares….Hedge funds seem to get a pass, where as an average Joe does not.

Then you have the big Bank dealing books, where you trade off mkt on their Dark Pools…..Imagine who regulates them…..

Then you have all the small exchanges….in places like Germany….Use Yahoo Finance to check a miner stock price and you see quotes from Munich, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Dusseldorf etc…..

It is a very murky subject….

One way to mess it up is to put a GTC order miles above the mkt to sell, then yr broker cannot lend yr shares….he has to keep them in house, in case the sell is done, so he can deliver them

silverngold @ 20:28

Posted by ipso facto @ 21:43 on December 3, 2025  

They don’t even need to sell any shares!

Long term the shares may have a run-in with a desperate government but I’m thinking things can hold together for a few more years (maybe). For right now they are in the sweet spot and opportunity is there. Lots of appreciation!

ipso facto @ 19:48…Regarding shorting/naked shorting.

Posted by silverngold @ 20:28 on December 3, 2025  

What other reason would there be for your Broker to “loan out” your shares??… And the Broker in this transaction is the biggest beneficiary (is paid the most) by loaning out YOUR shares. What I “see” is that “they”, the short seller and your Broker, have found a “regulation crack” that these “loaned” shares fall into so they can avoid being called naked short and after they have been used to short your stock, they are just returned to your Broker. Easy for me to see but hard to explain! SNG

ferrett @ 17:29 re: short selling

Posted by ipso facto @ 19:48 on December 3, 2025  

… then you have naked short selling, a different beast entirely. Shorting with book keeping fiddling instead of actually selling the shares. The only reason? To drive a particular share price down. That’s dirty pool!

Buygold … coincidentally , maybe he should be packing his bags! This guy’s the worst.

Posted by ipso facto @ 19:45 on December 3, 2025  

“I can’t believe we’re going to just hand this country over to a bunch of corrupt judges and Marxists. F*ck that.”

James Boasberg Snubs Senate Hearing on ‘Rogue Judges’

https://headlineusa.com/james-boasberg-snubs-senate-hearing-on-rogue-judges/

ferrett re: pie chart

Posted by ipso facto @ 19:40 on December 3, 2025  

Thanks! So can 30% support everyone. I don’t really see the welfare population on there? Lots of immigrants running that number up …

Greg Hunter…Headed For A Derivative Meltdown…. With Bill Holter

Posted by silverngold @ 19:38 on December 3, 2025  

One of his best…IMO!

Headed for a Derivative Meltdown – Bill Holter

Maddog @ 10:51

Posted by ipso facto @ 19:36 on December 3, 2025  

I lost count of how many wedding parties Obama blew up! I would have thought that at a certain point before the attack was launched they could have aborted it?

Greg Reese…Rise of the Safety State….5 minutes…and important. YOU ARE BEING WSTCHED!

Posted by silverngold @ 19:29 on December 3, 2025  

https://gregreese.substack.com/p/rise-of-the-safety-state?publication_id=706779&post_id=180655142&r=poko7&triedRedirect=true

Ferrett, I believe this is a technical point that is either being allowed and/or overlooked. FWIW!

Posted by silverngold @ 18:29 on December 3, 2025  

IMO this has given the shorts, and the governments they work with and for, the ability to keep the markets under/in control, which gives the public the “picture” that “all is well”…. when we know it is NOT…Until the house of cards… ETF’s, Derivatives, etc  collapses under its own weight.  Then we will be “saved” by the same ones who created these current failed monetary systems…the Bankers…. who are setting up the “you’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy” 2030 Digital currency and ID systems, and the “Smart Cities” which become our Mark of the Beast  “prisons without walls” where if you’re an obedient little jabbed Robot and are up to date on your mandatory monthly “vaccines”, you’ll fit right in. After all, we wouldn’t want you to contaminate the rest of us, now, would we?????????? FWIW   SNG

No.

Posted by ferrett @ 17:29 on December 3, 2025  

The short seller cannot return those shares, as he has sold them.

As you say, there is nothing illegal about this. Legal short selling is just giving the punter the opportunity to bet on the share going down. Funny how everyone applauds Burry for doing it in the big short, Tesla etc. when he identifies a looming catastrophe and has the guts to bet on it, but if you see the same opportunity in a miner and act on it you’re a p-o-s.

Once you see it you can’t un-see it….unless you are so addicted to the “casino” you just don’t want to stop gambling there.

Posted by silverngold @ 17:12 on December 3, 2025  

You have a Margin account.

You buy some PM shares.

Your Broker lends those shares, for a fee, to a “short seller”.

The short seller shorts those same PM shares you just bought, thus nullifying your purchase, and he was NOT naked short because he was in possession of the shares at the time he shorted them. All legally done according to the rules, and those PM shares, go no place.

Now the short seller can just return Your shares so Your Broker can show he has your shares and is complying with his  fiduciary relationship between you and your broker.

After all, your broker notified you that he would loan out your shares unless you specifically notified him that you would not allow him to loan out your shares…and how many of you did that?

All done legally in this stock market Casino IMO and why the PM shares can’t get any traction this time. Better get the real thing(s)… SNG

 

Maddog

Posted by Buygold @ 16:55 on December 3, 2025  

Hard to say about the eco numbers. I don’t know if it’s the same people putting out the numbers or if it’s Trump’s people now.

As far as Hegseth they are targeting him big time right now. My bet is that Hegseth is very popular among the rank and file and junior officers. I think that probably scares the crap out of the swamp. There’ll be no coup as long as those loyal to Trump run the military.

I’ll say this though, I’m sick of finding out about all the corruption and illegal acts. If no one is going to jail, what’s the point?

I can’t believe we’re going to just hand this country over to a bunch of corrupt judges and Marxists. F*ck that.

Maddog, 10:47, yes, it’s an interesting change in direction.

Posted by ferrett @ 16:53 on December 3, 2025  

Until Trump the emphasis was on pretending that the economy was great. Now it is to make it out it is as bad as possible so the new Fed chairman can cut rates and create the illusion of an economy on a huge rebound into the mid-terms. As a result, none of the numbers mean anything. Look at the deception perpetrated by Middelkoop and Arouet that ipso posted: the implication is that only 33% of the workforce is in the private sector, supporting the bloated bureaucracy, whereas the 33% is a third of the whole population, supporting kids, education, welfare, health, retirees, defence etc. etc.. Probably a pretty good historical norm! When we were a family I (20%) funded a wife (home duties, 20%) and three kids (60%) as well as my contributions to the government to support other peoples’ wives, kids, health, pensions etc. Now that I am retired I guess we are both retired, or home duties, or unpaid child-minders or whatever, but we are self funded retirees, so not a drain on the 33% of the people who are salaried employees or self employed.

And GDP, as meaningless a number as was ever invented, but it has become such a foundation of modern economics that questioning its use is akin to questioning vaccines.

ipso, 9:18, for context the translation of the pie chart (in the X) is:

Posted by ferrett @ 15:45 on December 3, 2025  

30% salaried private sector (23%)

24% retirees (18%)

20% children (22%)

8% others (homemakers, handicapped) (20%? balancing figure)

8% Civil servants (7%)

4% students (6%)

3% self employed (2%)

3% unemployed (2%)

The figures in brackets are the nearest USA equivalents I can find. Defining  and distinguishing “civil servant” in French and American is difficult, for example.

 

The attack on the shares today signals …

Posted by Captain Hook @ 12:35 on December 3, 2025  

… a possible attack tomorrow … because they want to jam their tech and bank shares higher this month.

It’s a buy opp IMHO.

ipsofacto

Posted by Maddog @ 10:51 on December 3, 2025  

Re Hegseth…..and the Coup…..makes sense as to why the MSM etc are so worried about blowing up drugs boats…they never said a word, when Obummer was zapping baddies.

buygold

Posted by Maddog @ 10:47 on December 3, 2025  

Re Numbers

I wonder if we can trust any numbers,as the swamp are desperate to paint the economy as shiite…..

Which is just great …..

ipso facto @ 9:18

Posted by Captain Hook @ 10:06 on December 3, 2025  

More like Animal Farm.

Chuckle

ADP Numbers – Big miss

Posted by Buygold @ 9:31 on December 3, 2025  

-32K jobs vs. expectations of +20K

Capacity utilization also missed 75.9% vs. 77.1% expected

Apparently, the economy is slowing.

Lots of swamp creatures don’t like Hegseth

Posted by ipso facto @ 9:25 on December 3, 2025  

Laura Loomer
@LauraLoomer
EXCLUSIVE:

🚨SECRETARY OF THE ARMY’S OFFICE PLOTTING COUP AT THE PENTAGON TO REMOVE
@SecWar
PETE HEGSETH AND REPLACE HIM WITH
@SecArmy
DAN DRISCOLL 🚨

Individuals in the office of US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll have been orchestrating a Coup against Secretary of War Pete Hegseth
@PeteHegseth
in an effort to have him removed by President Trump and replaced by Dan Driscoll.

Over the last 2 weeks, the legacy media, which is incredibly hostile to Hegseth, has been posting puff pieces about Dan Driscoll and how he is a “rising star” at the Pentagon. Sources have told me that Jake Sullivan
@jakejsullivan
, the former National Security Advisor of the United States under Joe Biden, is very close friends with Dan Driscoll, and they have been friends since they both attended Yale Law School. Driscoll and Vice President Vance also met at Yale Law School, which is how Driscoll was nominated as Army Secretary.

High level sources at the Pentagon have confirmed to me that Sullivan has been planting stories in support of Driscoll because Sullivan wants Hegseth removed and replaced by Driscoll. Sullivan is worried Hegseth and President Trump are going to take action against the seditious 6, the 6 Democrat lawmakers who are now facing federal inquiries and an FBI investigation after they recorded a video in November 2025 urging US military service members not to follow “unlawful” orders, a message President Trump and Pete Hegseth have called “seditious.”

cont.

Heading for socialist Nirvana? Not likely

Posted by ipso facto @ 9:18 on December 3, 2025  

Michael A. Arouet
@MichaelAArouet
·
Dec 1
This is probably the scariest chart you’ll see today. Let me translate it for you: only one-third of French people have a private-sector job.

How are they supposed to feed the remaining two-thirds with their taxes? It’s starting to feel like a failed state.

https://x.com/wmiddelkoop/status/1996086850822234218

The Problem With GDP

Posted by Captain Hook @ 9:09 on December 3, 2025  
VON GREYERZ_Alasdair Macleod

By Alasdair Macleod

With signs of economic stagnation hard to ignore, politicians, economists, and even central bankers talk about the necessity for economic growth. Not only are they displaying economic ignorance, but by chasing something that is not a measure of production, they are bound to fail in their objectives.

The consequences for us all end in a crisis of reality. The errors of economic and monetary management by modern governments result in a credit crisis, which ultimately destroys their currencies. The signs that such a crisis is descending upon us are growing.

This article focuses on the delusions and destruction by macroeconomics: its principle objective is demonstrated to be an egregious error: to achieve economic growth. Being the sum of all recorded qualifying transactions over a period usually of a year, the measure of GDP is not of output, but of credit deployed in the economy. The error is to assume that all credit is deployed productively.

Credit recorded in GDP finances consumption, production (including investment), and government spending. Only credit for production and investment in it leads to price stability. But US industrial production is lower than in 2008, when on the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis’s total index, it was 102.38 compared with 101.27 last:

Separately, FRED shows that industrial investment increased by a paltry $100 billion since 2008.

Credit expansion to finance production, particularly of goods, is non-inflationary because it is employed to make goods better, cheaper and more relevant to evolving consumer desires. And if credit funding goods production and investment have gone nowhere in the last seventeen years, then the increase in GDP is misleading.

Since 2008, GDP has more than doubled to about $30,000 billion. With the exception of service industries, many of which add little value, the expansion of credit funds, excess consumption and government spending. Credit expansion to finance the credit bubble is excluded from GDP, which is a separate issue.

It should now be clear that economists and politicians trumpeting growth are being misled or misleading themselves into promoting inflationary policies. The only offset is savings. If consumers save instead of spending, then consumer prices will not be driven up so much by excess credit. But here the US’s record over time is dismal:

Other than the spikes during the COVID lockdowns, when no one could spend, the long-term savings trend is down. Not only are savings down, but consumer debt is up:

Using 2008 as our base, consumer debt has doubled, while production of goods has stagnated. So not only has the personal savings rate generally declined, but the expansion of consumer debt has been a driving factor behind growth in GDP.

That leaves government spending. Governments are notoriously bad distributors of economic resources, and nowhere is this more so than reflected in GDP. Total US Government spending is about 40% of GDP, with the federal government portion being 23%. At least state and local governments’ spending is more relevant to their communities, but federal government spending is not, and that is where trouble is mounting from wasteful spending, all of which is included in GDP.

The easiest way to grow GDP is for the federal government to increase its useless and economically destructive spending, which undoubtedly encourages the political class to do so.

 

The deflator myth

Starting with nominal GDP, econometricians point out that it should be deflated for inflation. If nominal GDP is shown to grow by 5%, than an inflation rate of 2% reduces that to real growth of 3%. The deflator usually used is the consumer price index.

The temptation to bolster real GDP growth by tinkering with the CPI is irresistible. Various methods are used to achieve this outcome. The result is that the current US inflation rate is calculated by the Bureau of Labour Statistics to be 3%, while John Williams of Shadowstats, who uses the original 1980 basis of calculation, computes it as 12%. Taking nominal GDP growth currently estimated by the Congressional Budget Office of 4.5%, this changes “real” GDP growth from 1.5% to minus 7.5%.

Imagine the furore if that was admitted! But we can’t even believe this more realistic presentation of the contraction of the value of total credit deployed in the economy (for that is what it is), because in theory there is a general level of prices, but in practice, no such thing exists. Its construction is therefore purely subjective and can say anything a government statistician wants. Hence, the difference between Shadowstats’ 1980 basis and subsequent revisions.

Consequently, the idea that GDP growth, nominal or real, represents the economic progress we all desire gets even further away from the truth. Instead, we can explain how the real economy is being suppressed by statistical misrepresentation, despite GDP headlines.

 

The debt trap

If there is one thing GDP is genuinely useful for, it gives a nation’s lenders a basis for judging its creditworthiness. Put simply, if national debt is growing faster than its tax base — roughly measured by the growth in GDP — then the economy is in a debt trap. However, if we are realistic about the distortions in the numbers, then many of the G7 nations are already there.

The reason that debt traps are yet to be properly recognised by markets is that they have been captured by governments themselves. The entire macroeconomic myth, coupled with regulatory oversight, have engendered complacency, which eventually will be shattered.

It happened in Britain the last time it had a far-left government. In 1976, sterling began to fall, and the IMF were called in to stabilise government finances. Inflation the previous year had hit 25% and bond yields had soared to over 16%. The problem was that without the IMF forcing the UK government to cut spending and raise taxes to generate a budget surplus, the dynamics of the debt trap would have driven gilt yields higher still.

An understanding that GDP represents credit and not economic progress, and that most of its deployment is inflationary, tells us that the dollar and other major currencies already face debt traps. That is why central bankers in the know are selling currencies and buying gold.

Conclusion

Investors should be aware that the government statistics upon which they rely for guidance are thoroughly misleading. Nowhere is this truer than in GDP, the quicksand upon which macroeconomics is built. Distortion of the facts compounds distortions of the past. This is why the entire basis of economic analysis is misleading and is bound to end up in a general economic and credit crisis when reality returns.

For this reason, individuals should follow the actions of central banks and protect themselves from a looming credit crisis. That can only be done by getting out of credit and into real money without counterparty risk, which is only physical gold.

VONGREYERZ.gold

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.