Loading ...Especially the 1980 peaks for G&S. Looking at those spikes it seems clear that there were special factors in play. It would be like looking at the share price of VW after the massive short squeeze and using that as a benchmark for what we should expect it to get back to. Three times galactic GDP, or something. Things have changed so much in 45 years that looking back to a point in time when the US Treasury still had billions of ounces of silver seems irrational. They supposedly finally ran out sometime in the naughties, at which point the POS was expected to explode ….
Industrial uses for silver have changed enormously too. Pre 2000 48% was used in photography (inc. x-rays) and was easily recyclable. Now the biggest uses are in solar panels and for military and space purposes, and recycling is impossible.
I checked out a couple of other commodities for price inflation. Since 1939 potatoes have increased in price faster than inflation, butter less than. The charts for both show wild swings, but I don’t think anyone would put a price target on either based on their 1953 or 1946 spikes respectively.
Just my thoughts. I reckon silver has a long way to go yet but as in all things constant vigilance is important. Just as substitutes (which were considered by the bulls to be totally impossible) for many REE in electronics and glass making collapsed REE prices in the naughties/early teens, a substitute for Ag in solar panels would do the same. And as the price goes higher, the incentive is greater, and there are several projects under way involving copper or graphite. Which does not detract from silver’s monetary characteristics, but substitution would have to put a drag on price rises.