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@KobeissiLetter
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Oct 12
Investors are waking up to some major news from China:
The entire tariff crash on October 10th may have just been one big misunderstanding between Trump and Xi.
The news about China’s rare earth export controls came out on October 9th at ~8:30 am ET, 26 hours BEFORE Trump posted about it.
This was a non-news event UNTIL President Trump posted about it over one day later.
Last night, China released a statement clarifying their “export controls” on rare earths.
In their response, China said the new controls are NOT a full export ban and applications that “meet regulations” will be approved.
Amid the market’s downturn on Friday, our view was that the 100% tariff announcement by Trump was a bargaining chip.
After China’s statement last night, we believe the odds of Trump’s 100% tariff on China going into effect are extremely low.
The largest crypto liquidation in history and a -$2.5 trillion loss of S&P 500 market cap appears to have been driven by one big misunderstanding.
We expect another “trade deal” soon.