Loading ...Here’s a visual snapshot of global silver’s supply-demand balance over recent years—namely the persistent deficits and tightening inventory—that aligns with what John Zadeh and others have been highlighting.
What the Data Tells Us: Is Zadeh’s “Structural Deficit” Thesis Correct?
1. Consistent, Multi-Year Deficits
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The silver market has faced seven consecutive years of supply deficits, where demand (industrial, investment, etc.) outpaces combined mine production and recycling Metal.comSprott.
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The World Silver Survey 2025 projects a 117.7 million ounce deficit in 2025 MiningVisuals, while Reuters reports a similar 117.6 million troy ounce shortfall MINING.COM.
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HSBC echoes this tightness, forecasting a 206 million ounce deficit in 2025, narrowing to around 126 million ounces in 2026 Reuters.
2. Manufacturing and Innovation Fuel Demand
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Industrial demand, particularly from solar photovoltaics (PV), electronics, EVs, and even AI-driven applications, is setting new records The Silver InstituteSprottCarbon Credits.
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Solar demand alone now accounts for 14% of total silver demand—up dramatically from just 5% a decade ago Carbon Credits.
3. Supply Isn’t Keeping Pace
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Mine production is relatively stagnant or declining. Although 2024 saw a small uptick to 819.7 million ounces, this still reflects long-term challenges The Silver Institute.
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Recycling rose 6% to a 12-year high of 193.9 million ounces—helpful, but not enough to fill the gap The Silver Institute.
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Mine supply in 2025 is projected at 835 million ounces, still trailing behind demand MiningVisualsSprott.
4. Price Response Reflects Fundamental Tightness
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Silver surged past $35/oz—a 13-year high—as of June 2025, rising about 24% year-to-date Reuters.
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Sprott reports a 25% gain through mid-2025, attributing it to structural deficits and rising industrial and investment demand Sprott.
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Institutions like Bank of America, Citigroup, and others are forecasting prices to reach $40/oz or more by late 2025 or early 2026 GoldSilver.
Verdict: Is Zadeh Right?
Yes—directionally, very much so.
John Zadeh’s thesis—that silver is in a structural deficit—is strongly supported by current data:
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Persistent annual deficits.
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Robust, growing industrial demand (especially from green and tech sectors).
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Supply constraints from mining challenges and limited recycling gains.
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Corresponding price behavior and bullish forecasts from multiple institutions.
His perspective aligns with broader market consensus and is well-grounded in data and observed trends.
Overview Table
| Factor | Reality (2025) |
|---|---|
| Supply Deficit | Approaching 118 Moz annually—persistent over seven years |
| Demand Drivers | Record industrial usage—solar, EVs, electronics, AI |
| Supply Response | Modest production growth; stronger recycling, but still insufficient |
| Price Movement | Up ~25% YTD; surpassing $35/oz; bullish outlook to $40+ |