Loading ...That’s the whole point.
All those companies are gone.
Supply is non-existent and few new mines are coming.
And we will be going to more forms of commodity money as time goes on as well.
I remain optimistic.
But I won’t buy into non-PM commodity plays again until PMs are much higher, and the ratios are topping out.
Two to four years out from this fall.
Cheers
What do you get if you cross an insomniac with an athiest with a dyslexic?
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Answer?
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Soneone who stays up all night, wondering if there really is a …..
Dog.
Turning our brains to mush. Too true.
Not sure that the commodities will be good this time around. Last time (2001 onwards, as you point out) China was continuing to boost its GDP with fake projects – ghost towns, roads and rail to nowhere – and exporting steel at below cost price which boosts demand overseas as well as eliminating foreign competition.
Now China is forecasting reduced steel consumption. Iron ore is below $100. Copper is below the 2011 peak, in spite of the green revolution. Reduced steel means reduced metallurgical coal. And some of the BRICS are major suppliers, not consumers, of commodities.
If Trump wins, and the Dems are doing their best to help (The Kamala Waltz, by Johann Strauss, a vigorously dodgy little dance), then oil and gas in the US will be opened up, so more supply as we go into a recession will pressure prices downward too.
One thing is for sure, I won’t be buying back into any of the commodity shares I had in 2001-2007. They’ve all, without exception, gone bust.
Captain said “they think they are God’s.”
What you said reminded me of this passage.
26 The woman was a Greek, born in Syrian Phoenicia. She begged Jesus to drive the demon out of her daughter.
27 “First let the children eat all they want,” he told her, “for it is not right to take the children’s bread and toss it to the dogs.”
28 “Lord,” she replied, “even the dogs under the table eat the children’s crumbs.”
29 Then he told her, “For such a reply, you may go; the demon has left your daughter.”
The “children” he refers to are the Jews. He is their bread.
The game with the shares … and it is a twist of classic Game Theory … is to turn a small amount of money into a lot of money. (because the risks are high)
Unfortunately, a lot of PM share investors lost their minds these past few years with returns in tech (especially Bitcon) so alluring (making them feel like they are missing out), so they allocated far more to the shares than they should have because of greed.
The whiff of greed in the market(s) is and was overwhelming.
The entire exercise is and was to turn peoples’ brains to sh*t so that they can be more easily exploited … and the banker’s bubble economies can go on forever. (They think themselves gods like Egyptian and Roman contemporaries – spaced 2000 years apart in the larger cycles – this being the final epoch.)
Now we have a crash and reliquification attempt coming once again, only this time, commodities should be the big winners because of both demand (think BRICs) and supply (think supply chain dislocations) factors keeping prices high – which will in turn cause big problems for the real estate, stock, and bond markets.
So, PM/commodity related shares should benefit in times of more stable liquidity – just like they did between 2001 and 2011.
Here, well researched and selected smaller positions are quite possibly not a bad idea.
Of course some will go all in – no matter.
All I can say is sleep well – if you haven’t jumped off a building already.
Cheers all
For allowing G&S to have a tiny positive increment with your GOD, er, DOW rising.
I just listened to a bit of the video that you posted (thanks for posting it).
Andy S. said something very interesting. I don’t recall his exact words, but he said something like most investment funds have something like a half of 1 percent invested in metals and metal equities. As trust in our government and the fiat fades, he thinks that number could rise to 5%, maybe even 10%. If that’s the case, mining stocks will rise like a meteor (he mentioned something like, a lot more than the rise we’ve seen in NVDA).
I know………we’ve heard a similar line for a long time now. I do think we’re closer to the end than we’ve ever been. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds……
No, I wasn’t referring to anybody.
If somebody is reading this and a light goes on … so be it.
I do think the shares will outperform considerably for years from whatever low we see this Fall – but the confiscation / broad collapse risk (in the shares) moving forward is suggestive only small positions should be risked / considered.
Have a good one.
Cheers
Yep. Gold has held up well.
Didn’t know the BRICS were meeting now. Typical media blackout I guess. Would think ZH would cover though.
When you say “you should jump in” surely you aren’t referring to me. I own nothing but phyzz and some real estate.
I think it was all staged.
Oh the yen carry trade is no longer a good idea – no really – we haven’t turned this into a suicide mission – no really … honest.
They have to get gold and silver down as far as possible with the BRICs meetings going on etc.
Just listen to Andy Schectman on this subject and more. (Listen to the compliment Shawn gives Andy at the end – won’t hear that every day.)
So, they were able to club silver like a baby seal – but gold is a stallion – holding above $2400 despite their best efforts to tamp it down.
Is it BRICs buying? Is it a deteriorating debt market(s)?
Frankly Scarlet … I don’t give a damn.
Just keep it up boyz.
Western idiots will figure out they have to buy sooner or later as well.
Better ‘jump in’ like you do with all your other crap before PMs are revalued higher.
Shortest SM crash in history.
Aladdin must have caught a whole bunch of folks on the short side. Maybe even in GLD and SLV
Two bits says this gets reversed
The dollar has completely turned, rates as well. 10 yr. @ 3.99% vs. 3.91 earlier. Oil up, SM well up.
Course, this takes some air out of pm’s. and why not? That’s the most important thing to them. Add to that the usual 9 am bullshit and you get metals well off their highs of the morning. So typical.
Doesn’t make sense, seems like something else is going on
…continuing jobless claims rose to 1.875mm Americans – the highest since Nov 2021…
Dollar and rates are down a little. Rates down 3 bips. Bitcoin up 4% and all the way back to Monday’s level. SM futures mixed but mostly flat. Oil flat.
So, maybe we’ll get to bounce a little today and try to catch up with Bitcoin. Good start this am for sure and picking up some steam. Gold now at $2412 up $28. Silver up $.40 – unfortunately, silver has a long way to go to get back to Monday’s level. Gold, OTOH only has another $30 or so.
PM shares are firm but not anywhere near impressive, so who knows whether we’ll hold the gains, probably depends on whether the SM continues to tumble. Regardless, I’m surprised we’re bouncing at all. No news out there that I can see, and the eco data is nothing special.
What a surprise it would be if the metals turned up from here and ignored the SM. Hope stinks eternal. 🙂
Just like a carpenter uses different hammers for different tasks, use different PM products for different financial circumstances / social conditions.
For instance:
Junk Silver Coins for small purchases
Silver Eagles for trusted tradespeople and merchants
Gold coins if the SHTF and you need to get out of Dodge
Brokerages & Exchanges for large transactions
in a SnG melt up. The higher it goes the more people are desperate to get in. At $100 per ounce the dealer will be calling you (if he knows you’ve got it). That was the case at Easter a few years back when silver shot up, the bullion guys were calling wanting as many 400 oz bars as you could supply. And any other stuff too.
Maybe establish a relationship with a bullion dealer as well as the coin guy?
