OASIS FORUM Post by the Golden Rule. GoldTent Oasis is not responsible for content or accuracy of posts. DYODD.

@Maddog

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 15:31 on July 19, 2021  

I gave up on Silver long ago, I thinks its now an industrial metal, and easy to manipulate. Sometimes I’ll buy some at dealer to dealer coin shows if its a real good price.

The shares, unfortunately are connected to the regular stock market at times. No I don’t think this is positive action. It feels like 1929 LOL. What MIGHT make sense is sell what is sell miners that are still good or slightly under, and just hang on to the ones that are too cheap to sell.

The bottom line is, how much higher is the idiot Dollar going to go. It MAY be peaking today, at 92 area? Its been a rocket up since early late May at 89, our top.

Dopey/Dollar: https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURRENCIES&p=d1

If the master planners think the USA economy needs help, they’ll lower it. If they think the other western nations need help, they’ll keep it high or higher. There are no independent nations anymore, except Cuba Iran N. Korea and Afghanistan.

With the Dollar up and the connected Chinese Yuan up, the “system” wants the two biggest economies to buy more cheaper imports. So far. Japan’s Yen is kind of connected also

 

Mr. Copper- not in shock

Posted by Buygold @ 15:12 on July 19, 2021  

Just disgusted. Everything we’ve always been told to believe about gold is bullshit.

Sure gold is doing better than the SM but not silver or the pm shares.

I guess if you think this positive action then I don’t know what to say.

Mr Copper

Posted by Maddog @ 14:55 on July 19, 2021  

Hi There

u of course are right….in fact so far today the PM’s are not the worse place to be….I have Oil stox down plenty more and gold is almost Unch.

As fopr the SM that has been an accident waiting to happen for a while…lets see if they can rescue, it yet agaim…though this time looks different…

Geez, It Looks Like You Are All In Shock and Speechless.

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 13:37 on July 19, 2021  

We’ve all gone thru this a hundred times. Gold was $1,060/oz in late 2015 and early 2016, and now it’s $1,809 up 70%. The Dow chart (predicts the future) looks like a perfect triple top formation.

If this is the start of a repeat of the March 2000 dot come bust, or a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis, hopefully rebounding PMs will lead the next up leg in the Dow and SnP if they are lucky.

Triple Top Dow: https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=INDICES&p=d1

I forgot about the 2020 COVID Dow crash, 30,000 to 20,000 in only 2 months. It took almost a year to get back to 30,000, 33,707 today. And when they all crashed in 2020, Gold took off to $2000 6 months later. Mid 2020.

Gold: https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m1

If the Dow is predicting a slowing economy, the Fed will be forced AGAIN, to put the peddle to the metal hard, and risk blowing up “their motor” on this 100 year old fake money economy.

Wow 10 yr @ 1.20%

Posted by Buygold @ 10:14 on July 19, 2021  

Go figure.

Looks like gold is the only commodity holding its own.

For now anyway.

Course as usual the shares are garbage.

Mr.Copper

Posted by Maddog @ 9:51 on July 19, 2021  

FWIW

The Adens last week, called much of this, they got v bullish on Bonds, rates going lower due to poss recession , said to expect a major sell off in SM at any time soon, that might even become a bear mkt…and that PM’s were major long term bullish and buy this dip..

10 yr rate down to 1.22%, US Dollar Higher,

Posted by Mr.Copper @ 9:22 on July 19, 2021  

lots of interesting things going on. Gold the currency metal is holding $1810 but all the other industrial metals and oil are lower. Is it all just another blip? Or the beginning of something new.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=d1

The stock market Dow SnP etc looking bad pulling pms with them.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=INDICES&p=d1

Even the Oil market is dropping. Maybe some reality is showing up.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ENERGY&p=d1

Fed chief Powell did say everything was transitory, maybe the so called COVID recovery was transitory.

 

 

 

 

 

What Is The Sharpe Ratio?

Posted by Auandag @ 5:37 on July 19, 2021  

sharpe
measure

Intuitively, it can be inferred that the Sharpe ratio of a risk-free asset is zero. Risk-Free Rate FormulaA risk-free rate of return formula calculates the interest rate that investors expect to earn on investment with zero risks, especially default and reinvestment risks. It is usually closer to the base rate of a central bank and may differ for different investors. The risk-free rate is subtracted from the portfolio return to calculate the Sharpe ratio. The result is then divided by the standard deviation of the portfolio’s additional return. William F Sharpe, the Nobel Laureate and emeritus professor of finance at Stanford University, instituted the ratio.

Therefore, an investor seeking to profit from mid-caps must exercise extreme caution. Usually, the value of mid-cap stocks is derived from their growth potential, but this growth potential does not always materialise. Compared to large-cap stocks, mid-cap stocks represent relatively young companies. However, with the right stock selection, investors could amass a modest fortune by investing in mid-cap stocks. Therefore, it becomes even more important to construct an optimal portfolio with mid-cap stocks. It is a very simple model as compared to the Markowitz model because it requires very few inputs (Bodie et al., 2020).

investment risk

Over the short term, investment returns don’t follow a normal distribution. Market volatility can be higher or lower, while the distribution of returns on a curve cluster around the tails. This can render standard deviation less effective as a measure of risk. Sharpe ratio comes very handily to measure the risk-adjusted returns potential of a mutual fund.

Sharpe Ratio: Definition, Meaning, Formula, How To Use It

According to the model, it could be observed that the maximum investment of around 31.07 percent should be recommended in Metropolis Healthcare Ltd., followed by Varun Beverages at around 26.8 percent. 17 percent of the investment amount should be placed in Coforge Ltd., 12.02 percent in Trent Ltd., and around 7 percent in Aarti Industries Ltd. About 3.89 percent of the portfolio should comprise the stock of Astral Ltd. These six stocks would comprise around 97.9 percent of the portfolio. The remaining 2.1 percent is divided into the remaining five stocks namely Navin Fluorine International Ltd., Dixon Technologies, Laurus Labs Ltd., Godrej Properties Ltd., and Metropolis Healthcare Ltd.

  • To continue with the example, say that the risk-free rate is 5%, and manager A’s portfolio has a standard deviation of 8% while manager B’s portfolio has a standard deviation of 5%.
  • The Sharpe Ratio, developed by William F. Sharpe, is an effective way of benchmarking the investment return compared to the amount of risk involved.
  • Investments with an abnormal distribution of returns can result in a flawed high ratio.
  • Your obvious answer would be that Fund Y is better because it is giving 2% higher returns.
  • Sharpe Ratio is also used to carry out the performance of a particular share against the risk.

Key criteria one should apply while choosing a mutual fund to invest inPicking the right mutual fund may look easy, but it cannot be done without following certain basic criteria. Before investing in any fund, you must first identify your goals for the investment. This shows that the addition of a new asset can give a fillip to the overall portfolio return without adding any undue risk.

The tracking error can be calculated by taking the standard deviation of the difference between the portfolio returns and the index returns. For ease, calculate the standard deviation using a financial calculator or Excel. The Nobel laureate, William F. Sharpe developed the Sharpe ratio, and it is used to help investors understand an investment return and the risk. The ratio reflects the average return received above the risk-free rate per unit of uncertainty or total risk.

It can compare two different funds that possess the same risk or same returns to help an investor understand how well he will be compensated. You’ve probably heard investing professionals talk about risk-adjusted returns. This is a way of measuring the performance of an investment that factors in risk—specifically, the extra risk required to get higher returns.

Sharpe Ratio vs. Treynor Ratio: What’s the Difference?

The investor believes that adding the hedge fund to the portfolio will lower the expected return to 15% for the coming year, but also expects the portfolio’s volatility to drop to 8% as a result. The risk-free rate is expected to remain the same over the coming year. For example, an investor is considering adding a hedge fund allocation to a portfolio that has returned 18% over the last year. The current risk-free rate is 3%, and the annualized standard deviation of the portfolio’s monthly returns was 12%, which gives it a one-year Sharpe ratio of 1.25, or (18 – 3) / 12. In contrast, financial markets subject to herding behavior can go to extremes much more often than a normal distribution would suggest is possible.

A good example of this can also be found with the distribution of returns earned by hedge funds. Many of them use dynamic trading strategies and options that give way to skewness and kurtosis in their distribution of returns. Many hedge fund strategies produce small positive returns with the occasional large negative return. For instance, a simple strategy of selling deepout-of-the-moneyoptions tends to collect small premiums and pay out nothing until the “big one” hits. Until a big loss takes place, this strategy would show a very high and favorable Sharpe ratio. The Sharpe ratio indicates how well an equity investment performs in comparison to the rate of return on a risk-free investment, such as U.S. government treasury bonds or bills.

The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation. Investopedia does not include all offers available in the marketplace. Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts.

Move Over 60/40 – LoCorr Funds – Commentaries – Advisor Perspectives

Move Over 60/40 – LoCorr Funds – Commentaries.

Posted: Fri, 21 Apr 2023 07:00:00 GMT [source]

Your financial situation is unique and the products and services we review may not be right for your circumstances. We do not offer financial advice, advisory or brokerage services, nor do we recommend or advise individuals or to buy or sell particular stocks or securities. Performance information may have changed since the time of publication.

What does a negative Sharpe Ratio mean?

For example, Mr. Sharpe anticipates a 13% return on his portfolio in the coming year. He also knows the One-year US Treasury yield, which can be considered a risk-free investment, is 1.55%. Again, the Sharpe Ratio does not show where the risk is coming or the makeup of a portfolio. A portfolio that is concentrated in one sector can have a high Sharpe ratio, implying an optimal risk-return balance, while it has a high portfolio risk or industry risk. Hence, on a risk-adjustment basis, your portfolio offers a better return per unit risk. At the end of the day, every investor aims to maximize returns and minimize risk.

Moreover, as standard deviation contemplates positive and negative variability from the mean return, its measurement of the downside risk is inaccurate. Even in less extreme cases, a reliable empirical estimate of Sharpe ratio still requires the collection of return data over sufficient period for all aspects of the strategy returns to be observed. For instance, adding assets to a portfolio to better diversify it can increase the ratio. Investing in stocks with higher risk-adjusted returns can power the ratio upward. Investments with an abnormal distribution of returns can result in a flawed high ratio. For example, low-quality, highly speculative stocks can outperform blue chip shares for considerable periods of time, as during the Dot-Com Bubble or, more recently, the meme stocks frenzy.

Subtract the risk-free rate of return (one-year or two-year U.S. Treasury yield) from the return of the portfolio to get the excess return. It does this by using the standard deviation of excess returns only to the downside, instead of in both directions. But if a portfolio adds a high-volatility strategy that is negatively correlated, that added volatility can decrease the total volatility of the portfolio. Gold often rises in times of economic or political turbulence — times which often lead to downturns and higher volatility in equity portfolios. But our volatility measure has to be a positive number (a standard deviation can’t be negative), so returns below the risk-free rate are the only way to generate a negative Sharpe Ratio.

The implication of Sharpe Ratio

The outcome may indicate if the investor took on excess risk to achieve greater returns. Additionally, investors can use expected portfolio returns and the probable risk-free rate to predict the future Sharpe ratio. What Sharpe Ratio does is to measure the returns earned in excess of the risk-free rate of return and compare it with the risk taken upon investing in the security or portfolio. By viewing the excessive return in the light of the risk inherent in the investment, the investor can assess whether the return is worth the risk.

Suppose, if an investor is invested in a fund with a Sharpe Ratio of 2.00, adding other funds to the portfolio would help reduce ratio and risk factors. A high standard deviation means there is a huge difference between the principal returns and the returns of an investment. In simple words, the Sharpe Ratio adjusts the performance for the excess risk taken by an investor.

Our team of reviewers are established professionals with decades of experience in areas of personal finance and hold many advanced degrees and certifications. At Finance Strategists, we partner with financial experts to ensure the accuracy of our financial content. A higher Sharpe Ratio will indicate a greater return proportional to the risk taken on.

But those call options are likely to outperform, and often with lower sharpe ratio meaning, precisely when volatility spikes in the rest of the portfolio. Obviously, no one would build an investment strategy with the purpose of generating returns lower than a short-term Treasury, generally considered one of the safest investments in the entire world. Beating the risk-free rate by 10 percentage points with a standard deviation of, say, 2.5 — a low-volatility result — suggests a Sharpe Ratio of 4 — an impressive performance. Hedge Fund B thus has a Sharpe Ratio of 1.2 — higher than that of Hedge Fund A, despite lower returns. The higher Sharpe Ratio suggests that Hedge Fund B offered better returns for its investors than did Hedge Fund A relative to the risks each fund took. On an absolute basis, Hedge Fund A has outperformed Hedge Fund B, which generated returns of just 12%.

Many such sectoral studies have also been conducted for Indian companies listed on the BSE and NSE (Ahuja, 2017; Anithadevi and Mallikharjunarao, 2017; R. and Reddy, 2022; Shriguru and Bagrecha, 2022). The purpose of the article was to examine the superiority and efficacy of Sharpe’s single-index model of portfolio optimisation. The study has attempted to build an optimal portfolio of Indian mid-cap companies using William Sharpe’s single-index model. A portfolio was selected from the Nifty mid-cap 100 index of the NSE.

Avantis Emerging Markets Value ETF May Be Heavily Undervalued … – Seeking Alpha

Avantis Emerging Markets Value ETF May Be Heavily Undervalued ….

Posted: Wed, 03 May 2023 14:24:48 GMT [source]

The benchmark used is typically an index that represents the market or a particular sector or industry. Considering standard deviation as a proxy for risk has its pitfalls. Standard deviation takes into account both the positive as well as the negative deviation in returns from the mean, hence it doesn’t accurately measure the downside risk.

Here’s a Better Way to Identify Quality Stocks – Institutional Investor

Here’s a Better Way to Identify Quality Stocks.

Posted: Thu, 20 Apr 2023 07:00:00 GMT [source]

A unique feature of mid-cap stocks is that they would be re-rated if they came under the radar of institutional buyers. Good mid-cap stocks would certainly outperform large-cap stocks as well as the market index in the bull run. Nevertheless, with the proper stock-selection skills and investment disposition, these stocks have the potential to generate very attractive returns. Despite the fact that mid-caps have a long history of strong returns, not all mid-caps are profitable investments.

Based on these calculations, manager B was able to generate a higher return on a risk-adjusted basis. The standard deviation in the Sharpe ratio’s formula assumes that price movements in either direction are equally risky. In fact, the risk of an abnormally low return is very different from the possibility of an abnormally high one for most investors and analysts.

The excess return over beta ratios was compared with the cut-off rates. The difference between the two metrics is that the Treynor ratio utilizes beta, or market risk, to measure volatility instead of using total risk like the Sharpe ratio. They can try to boost their risk-adjusted free returns by lengthening the time horizon for measuring the ratio. The Sharpe Ratio help’s investors to shed light on a fund’s performance. By looking at Sharpe Ratio, investors can carry out the level of risk of any fund in comparison with the extra returns.

Gold Train

Posted by Maya @ 21:59 on July 18, 2021  

Did you ever want to go to Davos?
https://railpictures.net/photo/766024/

 

Good article

Posted by goldielocks @ 18:42 on July 18, 2021  

Armstrong young people should read if they can read with school the way they are now.
He mentions the article on Obedience to Authority. I learned some of it in college in psychology I had a scholarship for if I wanted it but didn’t. For instance from memory back when they took students and would give them extra credit so what might that tell you about the students to do a test on people. If they answered wrong they got zapped with electrodes causing pain. They were actually willing to cause pain. Obedience to authority. The real fact it was them being studied and the test subjects were actors pretending they in pain.

That’s what schools and others are now doing with CRT on innocent children. They going to destroy their reputations, minds, and ability to be happy succeed or prosper and could very well lead to suicide. Obedience to authority. CRT
Critical race Torture. So hold they know what could happen to them if they obey.
Parents need to warn their children.

We Can Win if we Understand the Game Plan

SNG

Posted by goldielocks @ 15:28 on July 18, 2021  

Throw in a portion of the gov that knows these tactics and where they probably got the info from. There working together.
They need to go too. Trump flushed a few of them out but apparently they’re still there.

SNG 11:47

Posted by goldielocks @ 14:58 on July 18, 2021  

I love where he lives.
It’s time people fight back and yelling and screaming although to some I like but now worry about like Celente health who should get out of NY and get some sun. Nurses know all to well the effects of both mental and physical stress being locked down while under stress in that case other people’s problems and no R&R for yourself to at least regain the energy it’s taken or drained.

I bring that up because who can see it better what they’re doing. They have studied what bothers, stresses and even sickens humans and then use it against them. I seen a comment on the unibomber.
They coerced him into a test subject and by first having him right out a essay of his aspirations and intimate feelings then used it against him. It destroyed his mind being so young like 16 when he entered college. To think Ted was more gifted than the jerk that did it.

It’s time the people go after them in the same manner.
They need to fund raise. Nope sorry might cause Covid. Let them feel what they do to business. Shame and boycott anyone who supports them. If they do have fund raisers guess people will have to peacefully protest and peacefully block cars from getting in. That is a key issues with candidates.
If they like boating nope close the docks to only fishermen and other businesses.
Get a group together and block it.
If they like golfing block it.
What ever it is they do block it. Shut them in just like they’re doing to them.
What ever it is they’re doing to us do to them.
Fact check everything they say of like. Peacefully of course.
Rally behind a good candidate to run against them and support them best you can.

Sunday Morning Entertainment with Max Egan. Enough is Enough!! Max exposes the lies that the stupid people still can’t see. Wake Up!!

Posted by silverngold @ 11:47 on July 18, 2021  

Gerald Celente of Trends Journal fame on Greg Hunters USA Watchdog

Posted by silverngold @ 0:35 on July 18, 2021  

If all you want is Celente’s silver and gold predictions, skip to the last 10 minutes or so, but the rest of his rants are also loaded with a wealth of knowledge from a  lifetime  of researching the world trends and publishing them.

Vax Wars are Global – Gerald Celente

A blaring siren’ for Democrats after ruling halts DACA

Posted by ipso facto @ 13:00 on July 17, 2021  

Immigrants and advocates are urging Democrats and President Joe Biden to quickly act on legislation to protect young immigrants after a federal judge in Texas on Friday ruled illegal an Obama-era program that prevents the deportation of thousands of them brought into the U.S. as children.

Plaintiffs have vowed to appeal the decision by U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen, who declared the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program illegal, barring the government from approving any new applications, but leaving the program intact for existing recipients.

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-immigration-f01fc0f485a8983b5f072e7af324c43f

Nice. video tech talk–Is The Stock Market Primed And Ready For A Significant Haircut?

Posted by Richard640 @ 9:25 on July 17, 2021  

https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/is-the-stock-market-primed-and-ready-for-a-significant-haircut/

Is The Stock Market Primed And Ready For A Significant Haircut? 
07/16/2021 08:16 

eeos -Cliff has competition though

Posted by Buygold @ 9:16 on July 17, 2021  

PM’s have some of the best moron advisers in any market. I’m sure they mean well but must make more money on their writings than on pm’s.

Alisdair MacLeod – is a prime candidate, he’s out with an article today saying that the new Basel III rules will require the LBMA banks to back their positions with phyzz. That will never happen.

Jim Sinclair – love the guy but this isn’t the 70’s early 80’s. There’s a reason we haven’t heard from him in awhile – fundamentals don’t matter.

Doug Casey – not only is he wrong, he’s an arrogant dick.

There’s a slew of others but too numerous to list.

 

eeos @ 8:33

Posted by Captain Hook @ 8:48 on July 17, 2021  

Thank you.

Although I hope he’s right about $600 silver.

Chuckle

and this fall when billions don’t die from the jab

Posted by eeos @ 8:33 on July 17, 2021  

Can we please stop posting Cliff High’s drama BS that never comes to fruition? Cliff High has spread more BS than anyone I’ve ever written. He’s such a moron

Posted by Maya @ 1:15 on July 17, 2021  

 

Gold Train

Posted by Maya @ 0:30 on July 17, 2021  

Crossing the plains of Argentina
https://railpictures.net/photo/766049/

 

You might find this interesting

Posted by goldielocks @ 19:51 on July 16, 2021  

The whistleblower on the shooting of Ashley Babbit, a doctor who gets in further with the virus plus another one they found would sterilize most the boys and some of the girls that Gaits wanted to buy but instead they destroyed it rather than get in the wrong hands. He gets pretty deep into it. The election and how it was originally rigged for Killery to finish us off and we’re going to release the virus in her second term but underestimated how many would come out for Trump.
Excuse any typos above norm since on my phone as usual but just did 139 hrs in 6 days minus a few hrs of rest a day. I’m ready for a vacation.

Dr. John McGreevey (Ryan Dark White @johnheretohelp) – Whistleblower Interview

https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2021/07/dr-john-mcgreevey-ryan-dark-white-johnheretohelp-whistleblower-interview/

Ipso

Posted by goldielocks @ 19:36 on July 16, 2021  

I know I think it started with Antifa but can be sure. They have their own issues anyways. There another problem and it isn’t just black schools. Like kids coming out not knowing the three R’s let alone college ready.
Can they do a research paper, a foreign language, higher math, the constitution, the wars their ancestors fought, the depression and causes? Is is just a diversion for their failures too? Do they know their legislators or Senators or what their policy’s that affect them are or if there doing anything at all?
Jessy Waters has been out there questioning them with all sorts of questions and they don’t know nada. NOTHING!!
If I went to one of those school boards meetings I’d have a field day.

Stinko SM close…where were the scum….routed for once.

Posted by Maddog @ 16:17 on July 16, 2021  

Maddog @ 14:46

Posted by ipso facto @ 16:16 on July 16, 2021  

As much as I like football I think I’ll be a no show for their first game.

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Post by the Golden Rule. Oasis not responsible for content/accuracy of posts. DYODD.